Tuesday, January 3, 2017

Predictions, Old and New

I made some predictions here on March 12th of last year. Here are the ones that pertained to 2016, with a strike through the one I got wrong:

Hillary will not be prevented from appearing on the ballot in November by legal trouble stemming from her e-mail scandal or from anything else: 100%.
Hillary will be the Democratic nominee in 2016: 99%.
Trump will be the GOP nominee in 2016: 80%.
Trump will not be assassinated or severely disabled by an assassination attempt before the end of 2016: 85%.
Hillary will win the 2016 general election: 70%.
I also predicted that the UK will not leave the EU as a result of the 2016 referendum. It now looks like it WILL leave, but that hasn't happened yet.

And here are a few predictions for this year, starting with politics:

Trump avoids assassination: 92.5%.
Trump avoids natural death: 97.5%.
Trump avoids impeachment: 97.5%.
Anti-Trump protests lead to fewer than 50 deaths: 75%.
Putin is alive and in power at the end of the year: 97.5%.
The Ukraine fails to retake Donetsk and Lugansk: 99%.
The Ukraine keeps Mariupol: 97.5%.
The Ukraine keeps Kharkov: 99%.
The Ukraine keeps Odessa: 99%.
The neocons have probably convinced themselves by now that Trump's victory will lead to Russia re-taking the Baltics. That's paranoia. Forget the places that hate Putin, he won't even take the places that like him unless he's provoked, like he was after the Maidan coup. Trump won't provoke him.
ISIS keeps at least some territory: 75%.
Marine Le Pen fails to win the French presidency: 65%.

Predictions related to this blog:

I will review more than 10 books in 2017: 75%.
One of last year's serial murderers, a BLM-related fellow if I recall correctly, bragged on his web site that he read something like 150 books a year. I'm not even 100% sure that was BS. Some people do read that much. Not me: last year I only finished reading 8 books, all of which I reviewed on this blog.
I will record at least 1 piano piece and post it on YouTube: 80%.
I will write at least 10 new quatrains for my Credo poem: 60%.


  1. Reading over 150 books is certainly doable if you don't have regular access to the internet. I went from 100 average to less than 20 a year once I moved to a major population centre.

    What are your odds now of a the US being involved in war in Trump's term that takes over 5000 American lives?
    Putin himself is starting to get old, do you see much future after him?

    1. I don't think Trump is likely to involve America in any major or medium-sized wars. If he was an interventionist, the neocons would have been for him. I think they're evil, not stupid.

      Putin's parents lived to 88 and 87 in spite of having gone through horrible things during WWII (major injuries and starvation). He exercises, doesn't drink, is in great shape.

      I'm afraid that he will be succeeded by a fashionable defeatist like Gorbachev, the Spanish king Juan Carlos, the South African president De Klerk. Someone who will want the cool, liberal people to like him. That doesn't have to happen, but it's a danger. If anything happens to Putin now, the constitution will make Medvedev president until new elections are called. And controlling the state apparatus, Medvedev will probably win those elections. Medvedev seems like he'd be more liberal than Putin if he was given a chance to govern on his own.

      Politics has always been very personal in Russia. Everything changes with the man at the top. There've been enormous swerves driven by single personalities, both positive and negative.

    2. Have you ever measured your reading speed? Words per minute, minutes per page? I've done this recently. I hope to do a blog post on that eventually. I read at about 250 wpm in English, 180 wpm in Russian (Russian words are longer though), 140 wpm in Spanish, 130 wpm in French, 50 wpm in German. What do you think about speed reading? Anatoly Karlin thinks it's impossible. I've talked to a couple of people online who claimed to be speed readers, but I don't know if they were being truthful.

  2. Too bad with Mariupol'. Rebels and Russia should take it.