Sunday, February 25, 2018

Prediction Testing with Anki

I decided to test my powers of prediction using my Anki deck. Yesterday, and then again this morning, I expressed my level of certainty about my answers as a percentage. I did this for exactly 1,000 reps. Then I tabulated the results. 

The blue line represents perfection. The brown line is my actual performance.

I assigned the probability of 55% and 75% to very few answers, so the results for those two data points are basically noise. Here's how the graph looks without them:

I put the data that I used to calculate this here.

I'm sure there are ways to score one's performance more succinctly, as a single number, but right now I'm feeling too lazy to do that. I'd guess I'm average at this sort of thing. The few times in my life when I gambled a bit, I came out roughly even.

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